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India is already engaged in a proxy war with Pakistan on the Jammu & Kashmir frontier and has ongoing border issues with China. Therefore, Bangladesh’s political stability becomes crucial to India not only from diplomatic relations standpoint but also for economic stability and national security too.
Historically India and Bangladesh have their relations going way back. If we take a look at recent history both the countries including Pakistan were a single country under colonial rule. In 1947, as a result of the independence movement Pakistan was born which was made up of East Pakistan (current Bangladesh) and West Pakistan. Linguistic, cultural differences between both parts and ignorance towards East Pakistan led to Bangladesh liberation War in 1971 where India supported and helped Bangladesh to get independence.
Since then, India-Bangladesh relations have seen many ups and downs. But recently the relations were on good terms.
However, the political situations have taken a drastic turn for Bangladesh. Something that just started with student protests over a reservation bill escalated quickly to its prime minister, Sheikh Haseena’s resignation within months.
After independence, 40% of civil service jobs were reserved for freedom fighters and war-affected women, later extended to their descendants. It was finally removed in 2018, but a 2024 high court ruling introducing it, increasing the quota to 56%, started nationwide student protests. Government’s decision to deploy police and military failed to control protests, leading to Prime Minister Sheikh Haseena's resignation and flight to India.
Now an interim government has taken over which is led by the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami party. In the last 15 years of PM Haseena’s rule Indo-Bangla ties became stronger but now India has to face the new reality that a government led by BNP might create rift between the countries. BNP has demanded to cancel all the agreements signed in last 15 years under Hasina’s government.
But Bangladesh is majorly relying on India for many basic things. Like the agreement on making a pipeline going from India to Bangladesh for easy transportation of diesel is put on pause for now by India. Also, they rely on India for electricity. Bangladesh already has more than $1 billion due for payment for electricity to Indian companies from which $800 million alone is due to Adani Power. Recently the Indian government made some amendments governing companies exporting electricity, that the company can sell electricity meant to be exported domestically too if there is delay in payments.
As Bangladesh is one of the top countries we export to i.e $10.63 Billion but this political turmoil can not only affect our exports but can also lead to rise in our defense expense. Thus, it’s extremely important for India to have stability and cordial relations with Bangladesh.
Thank you.
Regards,
Kautilya, IBS Mumbai.
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